This will be part 1 of the NBA offseason free agent signings and trades. As we did last preseason we will touch on signings and trades. How they affect the team’s style of play, players expected role and opportunity. Most of all, which player’s early line bets we will look to take advantage of when the season begins based on those changes. You can review how we went in last seasons preseason projections here.
Trades and free agent signings
Having plenty of cap space and no draft picks the Nets spent the summer acquiring assets by taking on unwanted salary. Most noteworthy receiving D’Angelo Russell along with the much-maligned contract of Timofey Mozgov. As much as this is not a good contract the Nets have very little depth at the center position. I am expecting at least 25 minutes from Mozgov. If you check the stats last time he played 25mpg Mozgov was a 10 point 7 rebound player. Combined with the Nets uptempo offense and his potential to hoist up some threes, yes threes! Brook Lopez went from almost zero attempts to over 5 a game last season. Although I don’t expect Mozgov to shoot as many as what Lopez did, it will be a nice bonus to what we assume will be a low line. Therefore we will be looking to take the over on Mozgov.
With the Celtics making room to sign Gordon Hayward, Avery Bradley was the odd man out. Bradley saw his rebound numbers skyrocket last season to over double from the previous season with Al Horford’s arrival who has never been known as a strong rebounder for his position. Now playing next to one of the leagues leading rebounds in Andre Drummond we expect his rebounding numbers to decrease quite dramatically. The books may be on this one fairly early with such a renown rebounder in Drummond but we may scrape a two or three ‘unders’ in before they catch on.
Reuniting with coach Joerger from his Memphis days was Zach Randolph. At age 36 Randolph’s scoring numbers have decreased each year over the past 3 seasons and he averaged less than 25mpg last season. A majority of people seem to think Randolph is still as good as 20/12 Zbo for some reason. If we are lucky Randolph may start but only play limited minutes which may see some lines set too high. Even if he comes off the bench we will still look to play the under.
Other Early Line Bets to watch;
The following may or may not have lines but keep an eye out just in case;
- Paul Millsap, over, blocks – playing next to Dwight Howard last season saw Millsap’s block numbers cut in half. Look for him to up those numbers now playing alongside Nikola Jokic.
- Chris Paul and James Harden, over, assists – Unsure where the lines will be set for these two but they will be staggered so one is on the floor at all times leaving no one else to handle the ball. Therefore although we expect a drop in both Paul and Harden’s assist numbers we believe it will only be very minimal.