2018/19 Season Review

Today we have a breakdown and betting review for the 2018/19 season. Specifically looking at win percentage, points margins, profit and projected profit. At Player Line Pro we are always striving to be better and a big part of that is reflecting on what went right and what went wrong and understanding why to help us improve and become more efficient.

It is important to note that all of the below is based on our season long average price of $1.8719, believe it or not that 0.0019 can make a substantial difference.

Firstly we will take a look at last seasons overall record and FREE daily tip record.

This season we posted 67 more points tips than last season while maintaining close to our previous 3 seasons combined win percentage of 56.03%.

PointsWinLossWin %Units profit
Overall37529755.80%29.96
Daily816157.04%9.62

Deep Dive of Points

In last years review, we broke down our bets in margins of 10. This season we decided to dig a little deeper and split it into margins of 5 as we believed we had a big enough sample to provide solid feedback. Historically or <20 point line bet win percentage has been our strongest and after switching from 10 point margins to 5 point margins it seems that sub 15 lines could be even more profitable. The >20 range still needs some tweeking but good to see no losing records by margin.

PointsWinLossWin %
5-10191163.33%
10-151389958.23%
15-20918252.60%
20-25464351.69%
25-30262254.17%
30+2250.00%

Profit

The part everybody wants to know about, the profit. Even only $10 per bet would’ve netted you almost $300 this season. Almost $1,500 at $50 and almost $3,000 for our $100 bettors. Even after a season long membership at only $10 a bet, you would be left with $150 in your pocket.

$10 bets$20 bets$30 bets$50 bets$75 bets$100 bets
$299.63$599.25$898.87$1,498.13$2,247.19$2,996.25

Early in the season, we noticed we were coming awfully close on a lot of bets so we decided to start tracking our wins and losses that were by only 1 point ie 0.5 seeing a majority of prop bets are by half points eg 16.5.

Below is our win-loss record by 0.5 of a point and what our record would have been if we had just a 50% record on tips decided by 0.5.

 

0.5 Win/Loss Record
WinLoss.500 Record =
Actual213427.5
50% on 0.5 tipsWin381.5
Loss290.5
Profit41.40
Win %56.77%

As you can see only 6.5 more wins and 6.5 more losses can have a huge impact on profit and win percentage. This even included 2x 0.5 wins on lines under 10 so we didn’t have much room to move as it was. A 50% record on these tips would’ve greatly impacted our profit. Here is the same chart below with examples of what a difference that 50% record would’ve netted us.

$10 bets$20 bets$30 bets$50 bets$75 bets$100 bets
$414.05$828.10$1,242.15$2,070.25$3,105.38$4,140.50

As previously mentioned all the points unders served us well. Taking a closer look at the overs we see that the 20-30 point line margin was sub 50% which makes sense that the general public likes to play the over and the fact that the 20+ per game scorers are the most renowned players in the league which would tend to push the line higher than what it should be thus also the reason that our under tips in the 20-30 margin range hit at the highest percentage.

Learning and Improving

  • We have spent another off-season refining our prediction model and look to push toward 58% record this season.
  • Last season we did not have strict enough criteria for our tips in the 20+ point range. There will be a strong focus on this for the upcoming season.
  • In the 16/17 season, we introduced 2 unit plays and were hoping to do more, however with the introduction of our app we weren’t able to get this as a feature set up in time for the 17/18 season.
  • Boosting the juice by not giving out any tips under $1.80 or -125 odds. As mentioned we finished the season at $1.87 or -115.

Overall Record After 4 Seasons

0
-945
Record
0
%
Win %
0
Units won

We also broke down our 2018/19 preseason prediction which came out at just over 57% success rate. This took us to 61.7% over 3 seasons with a profit of 16.4 units. That’s on top of our all time units profit of 108.84. You can take a look at last seasons betting review here. As well a part 1 and part 2 of this upcoming seasons predictions.

The start of the season is always where the value is found before the bookmakers begin to adjust their lines so sign up here for a free trial today.

We are looking forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.

Don’t forget to download our app to have our tips delivered straight to your phone.

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