2019/20 Season Review

Today we have a betting review for the 2019/20 season, Which was our best season to date! Breaking down our; win percentage, points margins, profit and projected profit. At Player Line Pro we are always striving to be better and a big part of that is reflecting on what went right and what went wrong and understanding why to help us improve and become more efficient.

It is important to note that all of the below is based on our season-long average odds of $1.87.

Firstly we will take a look at last seasons overall record and FREE daily tip record.

This season we reached our win percentage goal of 58% and we almost cleared 60%, which will be the goal for the upcoming season. With the interrupted season we had 52 fewer tips than last season however we profited an extra 37 units total and 12 extra on the free daily tip from the 2019 season.

PointsWinLossWin %Units profit
Overall36825259.35%67.42
Daily1006560.61%21.80

Deep Dive of Points

In last years review, we broke down our bets in margins of 5 after doing 10 the previous season. This season we decided to break the data down a little further and split the results into over and under tips, along with the 5 point margins, to be able to continue refining our prediction model based on the outcomes.

Things of note from last seasons review;

  • Tips on lines <20 had the biggest win percentage.
  • Our worst 5 point margin was tips on lines between 20-25.
  • Have stricter criteria for tips with a line >20.
  • Ease criteria for under tips to have a larger total number without forgoing too much win percentage.

2019 vs 2020 outcomes;

Tips in the <20 range; 2019 totalled 267 tips @ 56.4% a big jump with 488 tips in 2020 @ 58.2%. The huge increase in tips combined with an almost 2% boost in win percentage drastically increased our profit.

Our worst margin of 2019 was the 20-25 range with 89 tips @ 51.7%. 2020 held close with 95 tips but a massive increase up to @61% after revamping our predictions model for lines set in this range, specifically in the over tips which were sub 50% in 2019.

Tips >20 in 2019 totalled 141 tips @ 52.5% with total tips in 2020 of 140 tips as we tweaked our perametres and came out with a far superior win record @ 60%.

Our biggest take away from last season was that all our under tips combined were over 60% and this was our main focus coming into the 2020 season which catapulted us to our best ever season;

2019 season; 314 over tips vs 124 under tips.

2020 season; 313 over tips vs 309 under tips. Not only did we drastically increase the total number of under tips we improved our win percentage to a combined total of 63.75%, and not a single 5 point margin was below 60%.

Full breakdown listed below.

Overs
PointsWinLossWin %
5-108850.00%
10-15606448.39%
15-20563958.95%
20-25372361.67%
25-3010662.50%
30+020.00%
Total17114254.63%
Unders
PointsWinLossWin %
5-10302060.00%
10-15664161.68%
15-20643266.67%
20-25211460.00%
25-3014573.68%
30+20100.00%
Total19711263.75%

Profit

Below is a breakdown of profit based off a few different unit or stake amounts. Not bad for a membership that only costs a dollar a day!

$10 bets$20 bets$30 bets$50 bets$75 bets$100 bets
$674.24$1,348.48$2,022.72$3,371.20$5,056.80$6,742.40

As we did last season we tracked our wins and losses that were by less than 1 point to see if we had been ‘lucky’ or unlucky ie wins and losses by 0.5 seeing a majority of prop bets are by half points eg 16.5.

Below is our win-loss record by 0.5 of a point and what our record would have been if we had just a 50% record on tips decided by 0.5.

0.5 Win/Loss Recordwinloss.500 record =
Actual192823.5
Expectation (50/50)win dif372.5
loss dif247.5
profit75.83
win %60.08%

As you can see only 4 more wins and 4 more losses can have a huge impact on profit and win percentage. A 50% record on these tips would’ve pushed us over 60% winning percentage for the season.

Here is the same profit chart below with examples of what a difference that 50% record would’ve netted the team in profit.

$10 bets$20 bets$30 bets$50 bets$75 bets$100 bets
$758.30$1,516.60$2,274.90$3,791.50$5,687.25$7,583.00

Learning and Improving

  • We have spent another off-season refining our prediction model and look to push toward 60% overall record this season.
  • Expand criteria for under tips further.
  • After breaking down under and over tips into 5 point margins for the first time, our biggest let down of the season was the over tips in the 10-15 point range. We will look closely into this specific margin to improve for the upcoming season.
  • Continuing something we introduced at the start of last season bu not giving out any tips under $1.80 or -125 odds. As mentioned we finished the season at $1.87 or -115.

Overall Record After 5 Seasons

0
-1197
Record
0
%
Win %
0
Units won

The start of the season is always where the value is found before the bookmakers begin to adjust their lines. So don’t forget to download our app to have our tips delivered straight to your phone.

Join us as we look forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.

Player Line Pro

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