2020/21 Season Review

Today we are doing our annual betting review of the 2020/21 season. We will be breaking down our; win percentage, points margins, profit and projected profit. At Player Line Pro we are always striving to be better and a big part of that is reflecting on what went right and what went wrong and understanding why to help us improve and become more efficient.

It is important to note that all of the below is based on our season-long average odds of $1.87.

The past season we dropped well below our win percentage goal of 58% after coming off our best season ever. Maybe the 2019 season results were unsustainable especially with the effects of Covid on the past season but these are the types of standards we hold ourselves to. The lack of line availability was noticeable from the outset of the season with bookmakers not wanting to expose themselves to the risk of players missing games. Even with the interrupted 2018/19 season we still had 620 total tips in comparison to the 503 from the past season. Usually the fewer lines the sharper they are and I think we saw that play out in our results.

PointsWinLossWin %Units profit
Overall27522854.67%11.25
Daily827552.23%-3.82

Deep Dive of Points

Following on from last years review, we will break down our bets in margins of 5 as well as over and under tips, along with the 5 point margins, to be able to continue refining our prediction model based on the outcomes.

Firstly, we will review the goals we set for ourselves at the end of 2019/20 for the 2020/21 season.

  1. Expand criteria for under tips – for the 19/20 season our over/under tips were essentially split 50/50 and the unders went at a massive 63.75 win percentage. In the 20/21 season, 66.5% were under bets, sadly only at 55.3 win percentage but we believe this to be due to the lack of line availability.
  2. Tighten criteria for over tips in the 10-15 range – 104 tips the 2019/20 season to 59 in the 2020/21 season and a 7.5% increase. Improving from a losing record of 48.39% to a winning record of 55.93%. As mentioned we did have 117 fewer tips last season from the previous. However, the past season over tips between 10-15 only made up 11.7% of total tips as opposed to 20% the previous season.

Things of note from last seasons review;

  • Tips on lines <20 had the biggest win percentage.
  • Our worst 5 point margin was tips on lines between 20-25.
  • Have stricter criteria for tips with a line >20.
  • Ease criteria for under tips to have a larger total number without forgoing too much win percentage.

2019 vs 2020 vs 2021 outcomes;

Tips in the <20 range;

2019 totalled 267 tips at 56.4% a big jump to 488 tips in 2020 at 58.2%. The past season based on the percentage of the total amount of tips we were down 8% with 355 total tips but still where we wanted to be win percentage-wise at 57.7%.

Our worst margin of 2019 was the 20-25 range with 89 tips at 51.7%. 2020 held close with 95 tips but a massive increase up to 61%. Sadly the 2021 season was our worst ever with both overs and unders at 40% and 44% respectively with 71 total tips. For both 2020 & 2021 this made up roughly 14% of total tips. This range was the only sub 50% in both overs and unders in volume.

Tips >20 – 2019 totalled 141 tips at 52.5% vs 2020 of 140 tips at 60% which was 23.2% of total tips vs 2021 of 129 tips at 46.5% which was 25.6% of total tips. Simply put this was a process-driven result.

Changing our ways;

A little more of a look at the numbers of overs versus unders of past seasons;

2019 season; 314 over tips vs 124 under tips.

2020 season; 313 over tips vs 309 under tips.

2021 season; 182 over tips vs 302 under tips. Almost a full flip from 2 seasons ago.

Overall we are very pleased with the increased amount of under tips compared to overs from previous seasons.

Full breakdown is listed below.

Overs
PointsWinLossWin %
5-1013572.22%
10-15332655.93%
15-20221953.66%
20-25152240.54%
25-30151157.69%
30+010.00%
Total988453.85%
Unders
PointsWinLossWin %
5-10372460.66%
10-15574058.76%
15-20433654.43%
20-25151944.12%
25-30131350.00%
30+2340.00%
Total16713555.30%

Profit

Below is a breakdown of profit based on a few different units or stake amounts. Solid returns for only a dollar a day!

$10 bets$20 bets$30 bets$50 bets$75 bets$100 bets
$112.50$225.00$337.50$562.50$843.75$1,125.00

As we did last season we tracked our wins and losses that were decided by less than 1 point to see if we had been ‘lucky’ or unlucky ie wins and losses by 0.5 seeing as though a majority of prop bets are by half points eg 16.5.

The past season we actually had one of our ‘better’ years when it came to tips decided by <1. That being said we still have not had a season where our wins by 0.5 have outweighed our losses by 0.5, so you decide if we’ve been lucky or not!

Below is our win-loss record by 0.5 of a point and what our record would have been if we had just a 50% record on tips decided by 0.5. Although the win percentage would only have been what seems an insignificant 0.60% that marginal difference was the equivalent of 5 units profit!

0.5 Win/Loss Recordwinloss.500 record =
Actual162219
Expectation (50/50)win dif278
loss dif225
profit16.304
win %55.27%

Below is the same profit chart if we had a .500 record of tips decided by 0.5.

$10 bets$20 bets$30 bets$50 bets$75 bets$100 bets
$163.04$326.08$489.12$815.20$1,222.80$1,630.40

Learning and Improving

  • We have spent another off-season refining our prediction model and look to push back toward 58% overall record this season.
  • Tighten the criteria for tips in the >20 range, specifically the 20-25 range where a majority of the volume is.
  • Expand criteria for tips <20.
  • Continuing to not give out any tips under $1.80 or -125 odds. Again, we finished the season at $1.87 or -115.

Overall Record After 6 Seasons

0
-1425
Record
0
%
Win %
0
Units won

The start of the season is always where the value is found before the bookmakers begin to adjust their lines. So don’t forget to download our app to have our tips delivered straight to your phone.

Join us as we look forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.

For those of you who use Android, we will have an online portal ready for the new year.

Player Line Pro

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