Hitting the gap
We always recommend having accounts with as many books as possible to obtain the best odds and lines, what seem like insignificant difference can have a big difference in profit. You can read more about this here. As you will have all seen multiple times this season already a point or even half a point has been the difference between a win, loss or push.
There is another benefit aside from finding the best possible value. At Player Line Pro this is what we refer to as ‘hitting the gap’. This is where we find the same players with a different line on two different books. There are 3 factors involved when attempting to hit the gap.
The point difference, the number of points and the odds.
As we are currently running on average odds of $1.87 on our tips, let us that as our average odds;
The point difference needs to be a minimum of;
- 1 point – when the ‘under’ line (higher line of the two) is a maximum of 8.5
- 1.5 points – when the ‘under’ line is a maximum of 13.5
- 2 points – when the ‘under’ line is a maximum of 19
- 2.5 points – when the ‘under’ line is a maximum of 22.5
- 3 points – when the ‘under’ line is a maximum of 25
Sometimes you can find great value where one line is $2 and the other $1.90 really minimizing risk.
Below is a table of the average odds vs the denominator of what you require to break even.
Eg average odds of $1.80 requires you to hit 1/8 gap bets to break even;
Currently working on a shortcut program for when you find a potential ‘gap bet’ that will allow you to enter both lines and odds which will then tell you if there is value in attempting to hit the gap, stay tuned! It will be posted or linked in this article.
Much like the difference in profit with average odds the importance of odds in hitting the gap is also heavily influential on profit. Here are a few samples below;
- Sportsbet 18.5 @ $1.87…bet under $100
- Ubet 16.5 @ $1.88…bet over $100
Ie we have 3 outcomes;
- Scores less than 16.5 point -$12
- Scores more than 18.5 points -$13
- Scores 17 or 18 $175 profit
Getting a whole number is also of benefit as you bring a push into play.
- Ubet 14.5 @ $1.85
- TAB 17 @ $1.90
This creates 4 outcomes. Eg;
- Under 14.5 -$10
- Over 17 -$15
- Scores 17 $85 profit
- Scores 15 or 16 $175 profit
Occasionally you will see something like this;
- Ladbrokes 17.5 @ $1.90
- Bet365 15.5 @ $2.00
3 outcomes much like the Nikola Jokic example but at higher odds;
- Under 15.5 -$10
- Over 17.5 -even
- Scores 16 or 17 $190 profit
When you find points difference on different books be aware that there are different max bet limits on each site and each individual’s account. Check these limits or bet smaller amounts initially so you can put the same amount on each line. Early on when I found these line differences I got caught loading up on one side on one site only to go to the next book and only being able to bet half the amount I just place on the other site.