Importance of multiple books

Today we are going to break down the importance of having accounts with multiple book makers. Demonstrating what may seem an insignificant difference can have a substantial effect on your profit. A lot of people tell me they don’t have enough money to be able to spread it across multiple accounts. However, if you are sticking to no more than 3% of your bankroll per tip then you should be able to put 10% into 10 different books and still have more than enough time to move money around if necessary.

It does take extra time and effort but if you are serious about making money then its the price you have to pay and you will see the impact it can have below. It also take discipline to stick to your bankroll. I started with $80 about four years ago doing $1 bets. Although my win percentage was strong and consistent I did not have the extra funds to be able to increase my bet sizes. That $80 is now $80,000 and I am starting to make some serious profit with a larger bank roll.

Win Percentage

Firstly we are going to give you an understanding of what percentage of your tips you need to win at specific odds. In bold is the odds we are currently averaging.

Win % required to break evenOdds
55.561.80
55.251.81
54.951.82
54.641.83
54.351.84
54.051.85
53.761.86
53.481.87
53.191.88
52.911.89
52.631.90

Profit based on history

Below we have broken down profit into week, month, season based on our average amount of tips showing the difference between 3c odds and 2% win rate, as you can see there is a sizeable profit difference.

Average 4 tips a day
28 a week
Win percentage of 56% = 16 wins – 12 losses
$1.80 = .8 units profit

Bet amount$10$20$30
Profit per week$8$16$24
Profit per month$32$64$96
Profit per season$224$448$672

Average 4 tips a day
28 a week
Win percentage of 58% = 17 wins – 11 losses
$1.83 = 3 units profit

Bet amount$10$20$30
Per week$30$60$90
Per month$120$240$360
Per season$840$1,680$2,520

Win % vs odds

Below are two tabs, one at a 56% win percentage and the other at 58%. We have based the profit on 700 bets, which is just under what we have averaged the past two seasons. Again, in bold is the $1.87 which is also our average tip odds. If you told the average punter laying down $10 pops on a Sunday arvo that if he won only 2% more of his bets I doubt he would believe you that he would also double his profit, an extra $362 in his pocket. So you can imagine the difference of a $50 and $100 unit bettor, it starts to turn into some serious gains at around $1,310 and $2,620 extra profit respectively between 56% and 58% win rate.

OddsProfit for 700 bets @ 56% @ $10Profit for 700 bets @ 56% @ $20Profit for 700 bets @ 56% @ $30
1.80$56.00$112.00$168.00
1.81$95.20$190.40$285.60
1.82$134.40$268.80$403.20
1.83$173.60$347.20$520.80
1.84$212.80$425.60$638.40
1.85$252.00$504.00$756.00
1.86$291.20$582.40$873.60
1.87$330.40$660.80$991.20
1.88$369.60$739.20$1,108.80
1.89$408.80$817.60$1,226.40
1.90$448.00$896.00$1,344.00
OddsProfit for 700 bets @ 58% @ $10Profit for 700 bets @ 58% @ $20Profit for 700 bets @ 58% @ $30
1.80$308.00$616.00$924.00
1.81$348.60$697.20$1,045.80
1.82$389.20$778.40$1,167.60
1.83$429.80$859.60$1,289.40
1.84$470.40$940.80$1,411.20
1.85$511.00$1,022.00$1,533.00
1.86$551.60$1,103.20$1,654.80
1.87$592.20$1,184.40$1,776.60
1.88$632.80$1,265.60$1,898.40
1.89$673.40$1,346.80$2,020.20
1.90$714.00$1,428.00$2,142.00

Importance of multiple books

On the right you can see a perfect example from a screenshot from our app of how much variation there can be between multiple books.

Although this day Joel Embiid cleared all of these lines comfortably there were multiple outcomes that could’ve occurred based on the markets;

26 points – loss on 4 books win on 2

25 points – loss on 1 book and a push on the other

It may seem like this is an unlikely occurrence but you’d be surprised on over 700 tips a season how often it does. On occasions you can take advantage of the variance of lines on multiple books. This is what we refer to as hitting the gap, you can read more about this here.

Importance of multiple books

As of Tuesday November 13th;

  • We had 25 games decided by only half a point.
  • 9-18 record decided by half a point.
  • 15-27 record decided by 1.5.
  • 29% of our tips have been decided by one basket or less.

Our expectation, based on past history, is that we go 50/50 on these close calls over the entire season so we should see this regress to the norm. If we assumed we had gone 50/50 on the games decided by 0.5 so far we would be at;

  • 57% win percentage
  • 11.45 units profit

In conclusion we are definitely on the right track, we will also look at our review process later this season.

Season thus far

Below is the current profit of this years tips based on as little as $10 per bet;

$
0
$10 bets profit
S
0
$20 bet profit
$
0
$30 bet profit
$
0
$100 bet profit

We also broke down our 2017/18 preseason prediction which came out at a 65% success rate, you can take a look this betting review here. We are looking forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.

Don’t forget to download our app, sign up to a free 14 day trial to have our tips delivered straight to your phone.

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