Kevin Durant’s signing – betting persepective

By July 9, 2016Articles

Kevin Durant signs with the Golden State Warriors…WOW! While I only thought he would go to Golden State if he did leave the Thunder, I still never really thought deeply about him actually signing there. Probably because never in NBA history has the salary cap risen so dramatically that anything like this would previously never have been possible. But with Stephen Curry’s contract being so low for a player of his caliber and the cap increasing again next season when Curry becomes a unrestricted free agent. Golden state will have the power to sign Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry to max contracts after next season.

Kevin Durant changes the odds

So much like when Lebron and Bosh signed with Miami. And Dwight and Nash signed with the Lakers creating big threes or super teams and now this big four for the Warriors the championship odds for each of these teams plummeted. Very rarely is there value in future bets and in the case of the Heat and Lakers neither won the championship. I wasn’t betting back in the 90s when Jordan and Pippen were winning titles but I wouldn’t have imagined that any of their teams would have been as short a favourites as what the Warriors currently are now. Therefore we wouldn’t recommend any wagers be placed on the Warriors to win the championship.

Due to the fact there will be a lot of blowouts we will be looking at taking the Warriors 1st quarter and half lines along with their opponents 4th quarter lines assuming the starters will be sitting a lot of them. Also look to take advantage of opponents lines as the underdog on a ‘4 games in 5 nights’ and long road trips. Even look at taking the underdog as an outright winners and to win by 10+ market in these scenarios. You only have to hit a few at the $20 mark to make it profitable. If an opponent gets out to a lead I think they let the game go, much like the Spurs do, thinking long term. We all know they won’t be attempting to break the regular season wins record again.

How will this effect player lines?

While we have seen the effects of reduced usage due to star teaming up never before have we had 4 stars on a team where 3 do not need the ball in their hands to be successful. Consequently there will always be an adjustment period no matter what. The question is how long will it last? But Warriors willingness to share the ball is what really makes this team scary. Therefore from a betting perspective our assumption is that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson’s scoring output is more likely to decrease more so than Kevin Durant’s. With Durant being the scorer that he is combined with having the ball in his hands I’m not expecting his numbers to drop off as much as what Lebron’s or Bosh’s did in Miami. Furthermore we expect the most dramatic drop in points output in this order;

  1. Klay Thompson
  2. Steph Curry
  3. Kevin Durant
  4. Draymond Green

Listed below is the PPG for each player for the 2015/16 season.

Thompson PPG

Curry PPG

Durant PPG

Green PPG

Due to Klay’s shot creating ability compared to Curry and Durant he will now be moved back to the 3rd option when it comes to plays run and isolation ball. Due to Curry and Green’s passing ability and Durant’s prolific scoring ability this doesn’t leave a lot of touches for Klay. While he doesn’t currently need a lot of shots to be effective he previously has gotten his fair share. And shooters need to shoot game shots to be consistent. Even though we are talking about one of the greatest shooters of all time and depending on how the rotations will play out. We believe that playing the ‘under’ on Klay Thompson points lines at the start of the season will be a profitable move. Also the space that will be created from 2 of the best shooters of all time along with a 7 foot sniper will leave massive amounts of room for Green to operate. When given the choice we are expecting that teams will chose to live and die by Draymond Greens jumpshot. As a result he may receive more looks than you would expect. As such we will also be siding with Draymond Green ‘over’ points lines.

Player lines

One Comment

Leave a Reply