2017/18 Pre-season Prediction Review
Today we look back on our early predictions for the 2017/18 season in this pre-season prediction review.
Prior to the start of the 2017/18 season we released part 1 and part 2 of free agent signings and trades. In the two part pre-season preview we predicted some of the player’s potential under/overs without knowing what the lines would be. From our knowledge of bookmaker’s tendencies and our own predictive model on how certain players would perform we put together some of our favourite players to bet blindly at the beginning of the season. Below is a summary of our performance for the first 2 or 3 games of the season for each of these projections until the bookmakers adjusted their lines.
Review of predictions for first 3 games
- Zach Randolph, under points and rebounds – 5-1.
- Timofey Mosgov, over – no lines
- Avery Bradley, under rebounds – no lines but season average went from 6.1 down to 2.4 projection of 2-1 if lines had been available.
- Victor Oladipo, 4-2 – over points and assists. 1 lose came on 29% shooting.
- Aaron Gordon, 3-3 – over points and rebounds – after shooting 30% in game 1 we lost the over. Gordon then dropped 41 points in game 2 this line jumped up 4.5 points and the next game, which was against the Spurs. Hopefully we’ve spoken enough to know that this line would be a stay away or an under for game 3 but will include as an over for the record. Also we noted to look toward the over rebounds versus bottom rebounding teams. Gordon went over 7 out of 10 times the first time he played a team in the bottom 10 in rebounding from the previous season.
- Carmelo Anthony, over first game vs New York – win.
- Dwayne Dedmon, 4-2 – over points and rebounds. Went 12-4 until the line changed.
- Marcin Gortat – 1-2 under points – however he did average 33 minutes in the first 3 games. He went 23-12 when playing under 30 minutes, we projected a minutes split with Mahinmi however he could not play well enough and the Wizards went with Morris playing minutes as a small ball center.
- Jrue Holiday – 2-1 under assists – this was a hard one to review as the basis of this prediction was the Rondo signing, however he was injured to begin the season then played limited minutes on his return. Here are a few different stats to show we were on the right track once Rondo returned;
- 32-22 overall once Rondo returned.
- 12-3 before the line dropped from 6.5 to 4.5.
- 19-7 until the Cousins injury.
After two seasons of preseason predictions our record is below. It is a record we are quite proud of considering we are taking unders and overs blindly without knowing what the line will be.
Again we will have a season preview for the 2018/19 season as a bonus on top of our regular tips. We are looking forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.
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