2018/19 Pre-season Prediction Review

Today we look back on our early predictions for the 2018/19 season in this pre-season prediction review.

Prior to the start of the 2018/19 season we released part 1 and part 2 of free agent signings and trades. In the two part pre-season preview we predicted some of the player’s potential under/overs without knowing what the lines would be. From our knowledge of bookmaker’s tendencies mixed with public perception and our own predictive model on how certain players would perform we put together some of our favourite players to bet blindly at the beginning of the season. Below is a summary of our performance for the first 3 games of the season for each of these projections until the bookmakers adjusted their lines or took them away completely.

No result

Firstly lets just run through where we did not see a result of our prediction due to either an injury or no market on offer;

  1. Courtney Lee – no lines.
  2. Dwight Howard – injured versus Charlotte.
  3. Andre Drummond – no lines.
  4. Harrison Barnes – injured.

Review of predictions for first 3 games

  1. Tim Hardaway, over points – 3-0 averaged 21ppg for the first 3 month of the season as projected.
  2. Markieff Morris, under rebounds – 2-0 Otto Porter missed 2nd game of the season.
  3. Mike Conley, over points – 1-2 Unlucky here, first 2 games were blowouts but he did average over 20ppg for the season as predicted.
  4. Dario Saric, under points 3-0.
  5. D’Angelo Russell, over points 0-3 Unlucky here, slow start but like Conley did average over 20ppg for the season and made the Allstar game as predicted.
  6. Will Barton, under points 1-1 injured 3rd game.
  7. Dennis Schroder, over points 1-2.
  8. Kyle Kuzma, under points 1-2.
  9. Mo Bamba, under points 1-1 no line for 3rd game.
  10. Terry Rozier, under points 2-1.
  11. Jaylen Brown, under points 3-0.
  12. Brook Lopez, over points 2-1.
  13. Brook Lopez, over rebounds, not sure of line but rebound totals were; 3,3,4. We misread how the Bucks planned on using Lopez so have assumed this was 0-3.
  14. Andre Drummond, under rebounds vs strong rebounding teams 1-2. I should’ve clarified ‘strong’ in the preview. However I looked back at the ease of strong teams, solid teams and by rebound rate and all 3 came out at 1-2.
  15. Eric Gordon, over points if Chris Paul rests on back to backs or James Harden is out;
  • 2-1 Chris Paul back to backs – shot 22% in loss.
  • 2-2 when Harden was out. Both losses were once it was known Harden was out and line had already risen.

 

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-18
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Popularity of player lines | Player Line Pro

After three seasons of preseason predictions our record is below. It is a record we are quite proud of considering we are taking unders and overs blindly without knowing what the line will be.

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-41
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Again we will have a season preview for the 2019/20 season as a bonus on top of our regular tips. We are looking forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.

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