2020/21 Pre-season Prediction Review

Today we look back on our early predictions for the 2020/21 season in this pre-season prediction review.

Prior to the start of the 2020/21 season, we did something a little different than what we had historically by previewing all 30 teams.  In the pre-season preview, as usual, we predicted some of the player’s potential over/unders while also predicting what the lines would be.

From our knowledge of bookmaker’s tendencies mixed with public perception and our own predictive model on how certain players will perform we put together some of our favourite players to bet blindly at the beginning of the season. Check back tomorrow for the upcoming season’s predictions preview.

 

Unfortunately, we misplaced the line data for assists and rebounds and we only recorded points lines from one bookmaker. Therefore there may have been points lines for some players below that have been listed as ‘no line’. Regardless, as mentioned in the original preview article, we are not counting any of these predictions toward our overall record.

The below results are based on the first game of the regular season.

No result

Firstly let’s just run through where we did not see a result of our prediction due to either an injury or no market on offer;

  1. Kyle Kuzma – Projected under 12.5. The first line was not available until Jan 21st and was set at 10.5. Kuzma scored 5 in that Jan 21 game.  In the 1st game of the season, Kuzma scored 15.
  2. Killian Hayes – Projected over 4.5 assists – As mentioned above, no lines for assists recorded, Killian had 3 assists.
  3. TJ Warren – Projected under 20.5 – no line data from the book we used. TJ scored 5.
  4. Ricky Rubio – Projected under 10.5 & 6.5 assists – unsure if either line was available Rubio went 3 & 3.
  5. Marcus Smart – Projected over 4.5 assists. Smart had 7 assists.
  6. Alec Burks – Projected over 13.5 – no line data from the book we used. Burks scored 22. The only reason this was not a top 3 projection was because of the doubt of line availability.

Best Bets

Although it was only recommended to wager 0.25  units on all predictions, we did however choose our 3 favourites. As you will see we nailed all 3 of these;

  1. Paul George – Projected over o21.5 – perfect execution fading the public on a player returning from an injury after decreased minutes and efficiency the previous season. The line of 23.5 was a little higher than expected but was still cleared comfortably with PG scoring 33 points, albeit on unsustainable shooting.
  2. Jae Crowder – Projected under 11.5 – probably the most feast or famine scorer in the NBA, a slightly risky pick considering Crowder usually attempts an above-average amount of attempts relative to his line. Lines we normally avoid. Here we relied on his unsustainable shooting in the bubble to get us the W. Crowder scored 4 points.
  3. Dejounte Murray – Projected over 5.5 rebounds – unsure of the line but I couldn’t imagine this being over 5.5 even for a good rebounding guard and he had 6. Murray went on to record 10, 7, 7 & 8 rebounds in his next 4 games. He finished the season averaging 7 rpg.

 

2020 preseason predictions

  • Kevin Love – Projected under 10.5 rebounds – the line was lower than estimated, set at 9.5 and Love still went under, just with 9 rebounds.
  • Jamal Murray – Projected under 22.5 – the line was lower than estimated, set at 21.5 and Murray sailed under, scoring only 9.
  • Bam Adebayo – Projected under 18.5 – the line was 17.5 and either line would have busted as Bam scored 25 on 69% shooting.
  • Tyler Herro – Projected under 16.5 – the line was 15.5 and went under, scoring 13.
  • Al Horford – Projected over 11.5 – the line was 12.5 and went under both of these lines, scoring only 3.
  • Darius Bazley – Projected over 12.5 – the line was set at 13.5 and went over both, scoring 15.
  • Donovan Mitchell – Projected under 26.5 – the line was 25.5 and went under both of these lines, scoring 20 points.
  • Thomas Bryant – Projected over 13.5 – the line was 12.5 and Thomas went under, scoring 10 points on 10FGA. He also got into foul trouble vs Embiid, if we had taken the time to dig a little deeper we would not have posted this as a best bet knowing the matchup was against Embiid.
  • Brandon Ingram – Projected under 23.5 – the line was 22.5 and Ingram scrapped over both on 10/19 shooting with 3/6 from 3 point land.
 

Total Results

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-6
Record
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%
Percentage
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Units won

You may be thinking that these results are a small sample size, which you’d be correct. If you combine the above with all of our previous preseason predictions, we are over 60% on 120 tips without even knowing the line!

Once again we will have a season preview for the 2021/22 season as a bonus on top of our regular tips. We are looking forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.

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For those of you who use Android, we will have an online portal ready for the new year.

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