Pre-season prediction review

By September 12, 2017Articles

2016/17 Pre-season Prediction Review

Basketball is almost back! In our latest article, we look back on our early predictions for the 2016/17 season in this pre-season prediction review.

Prior to the start of the 2016/17 season we released part 1 and part 2 of free agent signings and trades. In the two part pre-season preview we predicted some of the player’s points under/overs without knowing what the lines would be. From our knowledge of bookmaker’s tendencies and our own predictive model on how certain players would perform we put together some of our favourite players to bet blindly at the beginning of the season. Below is a summary of our performance for the first 7 or 8 games of the season for each team until the bookmakers adjusted their lines on each player.

Pre-season Prediction Review | Player Line Pro

Review of predictions

  1. Luol Deng, under – 6-2
  2. Timofey Mosgov, over – no lines
  3. Evan Turner, under – no lines but projection of 6-3 if lines had been available.
  4. Pau Gasol, under – 5-2 (1 over when LMA was out)
  5. Chandler Parsons, under – no lines but in 2 games would have gone under based on our prediction of where the lines would have been set.
  6. Harrison Barnes – This was the hardest line to project where it would be set at. We assumed it would start low and increase as his scoring output did. It didn’t take long for the line to increase and with Dirk out the last 3 games showed his scoring potential. Hedged first 2 over, next 2 under, 3 overs with Dirk out.
  7. Dwyane Wade, under – 5-2 probably our strongest projection great record with one miracle loss where Wade had 4 3pointers in the opening game.
  8. Bismack Biyombo, under 1-0 we only got one shot at this and the line was set at 7.5 on opening night and there hasn’t been one since!
  9. Derrick Rose, over when line is less than 15/16 avg ppg – 2-1
  10. Joakim Noah – over when line is less than 15/16 avg – no lines
  11. Draymond Green, overs – 3-5

Warrior’s season preview

Our season preview also included a separate article, the Warriors betting preview. Where we projected in order which players points to most likely to decrease or increase with the arrival of Kevin Durant. We completely missed on Draymond Green but the other 3 we were correct. In order below is who we projected to decrease the most.

  1. Klay Thompson 22 down to 17 -22%
  2. Steph Curry 30 down 26 -13%
  3. Kevin Durant 28 up to 29 +3.5%
  4. Draymond Green 14 down to 10.6 -24%

THOMPSON

CURRY

DURANT

GREEN

We predicted that teams would make Draymond Green a scorer to have the best chance of beating the Warriors. This never really come to fruition but in the first two losses Green exceeded his line and I still think we will see more of a trend of teams doing this in the coming season.

For the purpose of this article, we left out Harrison Barnes’ record due to the uncertainty of where the lines were going to be set. Overall record as of the first 7 or 8 games of the season, on top of our super hot start to begin the regular season was;

0
-12
Record
0
%
Percentage
0
%
ROI

Again we will have a season preview for the 2017/18 season as a bonus on top of our regular tips. We are looking forward to another successful season at Player Line Pro.

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