Below is a recap of last seasons most profitable players from the playerlinepro model. First of all we have our ‘projected over’ most profitable. These are based from last years stats. As a result we expect these to remain profitable players for the upcoming season. However any of the below players that have had any dramatic change to their team. i.e. have had a top 5 player leave or join their team, an injury or change of team themselves need to re-evaluated through the playerlinepro model.
PROFITABLE PLAYERS ‘OVERS’ RECORDS
|JULIUS RANDLE||LA LAKERS||15-4||10-7||25-11|
|KHRIS MIDDLETON||MILWAUKEE BUCKS||6-8||7-2||13-10|
|JABARI PARKER||MILWAUKEE BUCKS||9-2||8-6||17-8|
|NIKOLA VUCEVIC||ORLANDO MAGIC||12-4||7-7||19-11|
|CJ MCCOLLUM||PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS||19-9||17-7||36-16|
|DAMIAN LILLARD||PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS||13-7||6-6||19-13|
|JAE CROWDER||BOSTON CELTICS||8-5||7-2||16-7|
|KENTAVIOUS CARDWELL-POPE||DETROIT PISTONS||7-9||8-3||15-12|
|CHRIS PAUL||LA CLIPPERS||11-4||2-3||13-7|
Therefore if we were placing just $10 on all the plays highlighted in green above we would have a net profit of $783!
Below are last seasons most profitable players ‘unders’. Same as the ‘overs’ we expect these players to remain profitable for the upcoming season. Hence being based from last seasons stats. While keeping in mind any changes as mentioned in the first paragraph.
PROFITABLE PLAYERS ‘UNDERS’ RECORDS
|AL HORFORD||ATLANTA HAWKS||7-6||11-3||18-9|
|PAUL MILLSAP||ATLANTA HAWKS||9-5||10-5||19-10|
|ISIAH THOMAS||BOSTON CELTICS||10-5||10-2||20-7|
|THADDEUS YOUNG||BROOKLYN NETS||9-1||4-4||13-5|
|KEVIN LOVE||CLEVELAND CAVALIERS||14-7||12-10||26-17|
|ANDRE DRUMMOND||DETROIT PISTONS||7-6||12-1||19-7|
|ANDREW BOGUT||GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS||8-4||10-1||18-5|
|HARRISON BARNES||GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS||10-4||7-3||17-7|
|DWIGHT HOWARD||HOUSTON ROCKETS||7-2||8-7||15-9|
|JJ REDICK||LA CLIPPERS||8-6||10-2||18-8|
|DEANDRE JORDAN||LA CLIPPERS||14-6||6-10||20-16|
|ERIC GORDON||NEW ORLEANS PELICANS||7-1||2-1||9-2|
|ROBERT COVINGTON||PHILADELPHIA 76ERS||8-4||8-2||16-6|
|PJ TUCKER||PHOENIX SUNS||4-5||10-1||14-6|
|DAMIAN LILLARD||PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS||9-5||13-5||22-10|
|CJ MCCOLLUM||PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS||4-1||6-3||10-4|
|KYLE LOWRY||TORONTO RAPTORS||19-9||10-10||29-19|
|DEMAR DEROZAN||TORONTO RAPTORS||7-16||13-7||20-23|
|TERRENCE ROSS||TORONTO RAPTORS||6-0||3-0||9-0|
|TONY PARKER||SAN ANTONIO SPURS||15-3||11-8||26-11|
|DANNY GREEN||SAN ANTONIO SPURS||11-6||13-6||24-12|
|PATTY MILLS||SAN ANTONIO SPURS||8-4||15-1||23-5|
Therefore if we were placing just $10 on all the plays highlighted in green above we would have a net profit of $1,831!
Combining our most profitable players ‘unders’ and ‘overs’ if we were placing just $10 on all these plays we would have a net profit of $2,614!
Below our combined ‘overs’ and ‘unders’ stats;
Something to lookout for!
Almost all of the time when you have 2 of the teams leading scorers in the guard position you can find value. Hence the correlation between Derozan’s good ‘under’ away record vs Lowry’s good home ‘under’ record. As a result not often will both players have high scoring outputs in the same game.
In the 14/15 regular season Derozan and Lowry both exceeded their season average in the same game only 12 games. Also only 14 games in the 15/16 regular season. In addition to multiple factors in the playerlinepro model we have a great head start on the bookmakers. Here are a couple of games to circle to play the Derozan ‘under’. Providing nothing unforeseen happens before then.
25th Jan @ Memphis on Home/Away back to back
4th Mar @ Bucks on Away/Away back to back